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Supermoon Nonsense Redux: November 2016

November 9, 2016 2 comments

There seems to be a growing excitement about the “Supermoon” that is due to occur on 14 November 2016, when the Moon will be at its closest to Earth in this orbit, and closer than it has been at any time since 1948.

Sure the full moon will look big and bright this Sunday evening/Monday morning, but no more so than normal. It’ll be 14% larger and 30% brighter but your eyes and brain won’t see any difference from a normal full moon. It’s still worth a look – the moon is always a beautiful thing to see – but if you notice any difference in size or brightness, it’ll be your brain playing tricks on you. Maybe the power of suggestion or the Moon Illusion.

Read on to find out why it’s not any more super than normal…

Moon

The Moon orbits the Earth in an elliptical orbit, i.e. it is not perfectly circular, and so in each orbit there is a closest approach, called “perigee” and a furthest approach, called “apogee”.

At this month’s perigee the Moon will be 356,511km away from Earth. Closer than normal, sure but only 66km closer than the “Supermoon” that began all the hype back in 2011, so not that much closer.

Let’s start by comparing it to the Moon’s average distance from the Earth, which is ~385,000km. This perigee will be ~8% closer to the Earth than average. OK, that’s a bit closer, but not significantly so.

What about comparing it to the Moon’s average perigee distance, which is ~364,000km. So this “Supermoon” will be ~2% closer to the Earth than it is most months at perigee. Wow!

The brilliant XKCD sums up the Supermoon hype nicely

The brilliant XKCD sums up the Supermoon hype nicely

So what will this mean to you? Nothing at all. The Moon will be 14% bigger in the sky, but your eye won’t really be able to tell the difference. It will also be 30% percent brighter, but your eye will compensate for this too, so altogether this “Supermoon” will look exactly the same as it always does when it’s full.

As to all of those soothsayers claiming that there will be earthquakes and tidal waves. There very well might be, but they’ll be nothing at all to do with the Moon.

Post Script

Supermoons aren’t all that rare. In fact they occur once every 13.5 months.

Thanks to Steve Bell at the UK Hydrographic Office for providing the calculations below:

The Moon orbits the Earth once every 27.321 days (called the sidereal period), but as the Earth is orbiting the Sun at the same time, the Moon’s phases appear to repeat every 29.530 days (called the synodic period, which is the time we use to derive the month).

The Moon’s orbit is elliptical (a squashed circle) and so you would expect a perigee once every 27.321 days. However the elliptical path around which the Moon orbits the Earth precesses (that is it is not fixed with the perigee occurring at the same part of each orbit; the place where perigee occurs moves, or precesses) with a period of 8.8504 years, so that perigee doesn’t occur once every 27.321 days but rather once every 27.554 days (called the anomalistic period).

To calculate the frequency of perigee full moons (“Supermoons”) you need to use the equation:

1/P(perigee&full) = 1/P(perigee) – 1/P(full)

where P(perigee) is the anomalistic period = 27.554 days, and
where P(full) is the synodic period = 29.530 days

and when you put those figures in you find that a full moon will occur at perigee once every 411.776 days (i.e. P(perigee&full)=411.776), or just less than once per year.

Perseids Meteor Shower 2016

August sees the return of the most reliable meteor shower of the year; the Perseids, with rates of shooting stars possibly increasing to over 100 per hour under perfect conditions.

Read my previous blog post Meteor Showers: The What, How, Where, When, Why for general advice on how best to observe meteor showers.

A shooting star – otherwise known as a meteor – is a tiny piece of space dust that burns up in our atmosphere, forming a bright, brief streak of light in the sky. Many people have never seen a shooting star, and think they’re rare events, but given dark skies you can expect to see a few every hour on a clear night. From cities, under light polluted skies, you can’t see most of the faint ones, and so only the rarer bright ones are visible.

However at regular times each year the Earth moves through thick clouds of space dust – left behind by comets – and we get a dramatically increased rate of meteors. On the night of 12/13 August we’ll pass through the densest part of a dust cloud left behind by Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, and will see the rate of meteors increase by a factor of 20!

You can begin watching for Perseid meteors now, and the shower will last until late-August, but the peak of the shower occurs overnight on 12/13 August 2016, which means that the nights on either side of this will be best for meteorwatching.

Location of the Perseids Radiant at 0001 on 13 August

Location of the Perseids Radiant at 0001 on 13 August

The best time of night to watch the meteor shower is from around 2200 onwards on 12 August, once the radiant, the point from where the meteors appear to originate, rises above the horizon. However the moon will be in the sky until after midnight, and will interfere slightly for observers in dark sites. The later you observe the higher the radiant will be, and the more meteors you’ll see.

The number of meteors that you will observe every hour depends on a number of factors:
•the density of the dust cloud that the Earth is moving through, that is causing the shower in the first place;
•the height above the horizon of the radiant of the shower, the point from which the meteors appear to radiate;
•the fraction of your sky that is obscured by cloud;
•the darkness of your sky, measured using naked-eye limiting magnitude, a measure of the faintest object you can see.

This year the Perseid meteor shower has an expected zenith hourly rate (ZHR) of around 150. This is the number of meteors that you can expect to see if the radiant is directly overhead (the point in the sky called the zenith), and you are observing under a cloudless sky with no trace of light pollution.

However conditions are rarely that perfect. In the UK, for example, the radiant of the shower will not be at the zenith; it will be around 30° above the horizon at 2200, 40° high at midnight, and 50° high at 0200.

Assuming a clear night, the other factor is the limiting magnitude of the sky, a measure of the faintest object you can see. Man-made light pollution will be an issue for most people. From suburbia the limiting magnitude of the sky is ~4.5 (around 500 stars visible), so you will only be able to see meteors that are at least this bright; the fainter ones wouldn’t be visible through the orange glow. In a big city centre your limiting magnitude might be ~3 (only around 50 stars visible); in a very dark site like Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park the limiting magnitude is ~6.5 (many thousands of stars visible), limited only by the sensitivity of your eye. So in most cases it’s best to try and get somewhere nice and dark, away from man-made light pollution.

The calculation that you need to make in order to determine your actual hourly rate is:

Actual Hourly Rate = (ZHR x sin(h))/((1/(1-k)) x 2^(6.5-m)) where

h = the height of the radiant above the horizon

k = fraction of the sky covered in cloud

m = limiting magnitude

Let’s plug the numbers in for the Persieds 2016.

ZHR = 150 at the peak, say.

h = 30° at 2200, 40° at 0000, 50° at 0200, 65° at 0400

k = 0 (let’s hope!)

m = 6.5 (if you’re observing under skies free from light pollution)

So your actual hourly rate under clear dark skies is

(150 x sin(30))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 75 meteors per hour at 2200
(150 x sin(40))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 96 meteors per hour at 0000
(150 x sin(50))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 115 meteors per hour at 0200
(150 x sin(65))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 135 meteors per hour at 0400

Remember though that these numbers apply only to the peak of the Perseid occuring at these times. If the peak happens at 0400 on 13 August (and we’re not sure exactly when it’ll occur) then you might see 135 meteors per hour, but “only” 75 per hour if the peak occurs at 2200 on 12 August.

Remember that these rates are for perfectly dark skies. If you live in suburbia then divide these numbers by 4 or 5; if you live in a bright city divide these numbers by 10. Take home message: get somewhere dark!

It is worthwhile having a look on the days leading up to the peak, when the numbers of meteors will be gradually increasing towards this rate.

Live in or near Glasgow? Come and join me for the Perseids #Meteorwatch at Whitelee Wind Farm!

Nacreous Clouds

February 2, 2016 Leave a comment

Twitter was a-buzz yesterday evening (1 Feb 2016) and this morning, as users took snaps of a very rare display of Nacreous Clouds over the UK.

These clouds, also known as Polar Stratospheric Clouds, form high up in our atmosphere (in the stratosphere) between 15 and 25 km in altitude. Normally this part of our atmosphere is very dry but in polar winter temperatures can plunge and conditions can become right for certain clouds to form.

The following pictures were just some of those re-tweeted by @Virtualastro last night; give him a follow to keep up to date.

Nacreous Clouds (named that after the word “nacre”, for mother-of-pearl, due to their iridescent colours) appear when sunlight is scattered through the cloud, and particles within the cloud then produce colours through diffraction processes, making for a beautiful display.

To see a display of Nacreous Clouds you have to head out when the Sun is below the horizon – but only just – during Civil Twilight –  when the Sun is between 0 and 6° below the horizon. Look towards the direction of sunset or sunrise (depending on whether you’re out in the evening or morning), you may see these beautiful clouds for yourself.

Find out your civil twilight times at timeanddate.com. For central Scotland (where I am) the best time to see these clouds is between 0730-0810 and 1650-1730. Remember, these clouds are incredibly rare – you can go years without seeing such a display – and there’s no way to predict whether you’ll see them on any given night, but as they happened last night there’s a good chance they might happen again tonight or the following night, 2 or 3 Feb 2016. Get outside and look up!

 

Geminids Meteor Shower 2015

December 11, 2015 1 comment

One of the most active and reliable meteor showers, the Geminids, happens every year in mid-December. This year’s display promises to be a good one for those meteorwatchers with clear skies.

The maximum rate of Geminids is predicted to occur around 1800 on 14 Dec 2015, but peak rates normally persist for around a day, so the nights of 13 and 14 Dec are both good for meteorwatching. In addition. you’ll see plenty of Geminids from now until a few days after the peak.

When Gemini Sends Stars to Paranal  Image Credit & Copyright: Stéphane Guisard (Los Cielos de America), TWAN

When Gemini Sends Stars to Paranal
Image Credit & Copyright: Stéphane Guisard (Los Cielos de America), TWAN

There are a few ways you can maximise your chances of seeing some Geminids (see The What, How, Where, When and Why) but the best way is to get somewhere dark, like one of the UK’s International Dark Sky Places. I’ll be heading down to Galloway Forest in SW Scotland.

The Geminids’ radiant (the point in the sky where all the meteors appear to emerge from) rises at sunset, so you can begin your meteorwatch as soon as it gets dark enough. The Moon is only 3 days old at maximum so you’ll have no interference to your dark skies.

The number of meteors that you will observe every hour depends on a number of factors:

  • the density of the cloud of dust that the Earth is moving through, that is causing the shower in the first place;
  • the height above the horizon of the radiant of the shower, the point from which the meteors appear to radiate;
  • the fraction of your sky that is obscured by cloud;
  • the naked-eye limiting magnitude of the sky, that is a measure of the faintest object you can see.

The Geminids meteor shower has a maximum zenith hourly rate (ZHR) of  around 120 (the highest of any meteor shower). This is the number of meteors that you can expect to see if the radiant is directly overhead (the point in the sky called the zenith), and you are observing under a cloudless sky with no trace of light pollution.

However conditions are rarely perfect. In the UK, for example, the radiant of the shower will not be at the zenith; it will be around 10° above the horizon at 1800h, 25° above the horizon at 2000h, 40° at 2200h, 60° at 0000h, and at its highest of 70° at 0200h.

Assuming a clear night, the other factor is the limiting magnitude of the sky, a measure of the faintest object you can see. Man-made light pollution will be an issue for most people. From suburbia the limiting magnitude of the sky is ~4.5 (around 500 stars visible), so you will only be able to see meteors that are at least this bright; the fainter ones wouldn’t be visible through the orange glow. In a big city centre your limiting magnitude might be ~3 (only around 50 stars visible); in a very dark site like Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park the limiting magnitude is ~6.5 (many thousands of stars visible), limited only by the sensitivity of your eye. So in most cases it’s best to try and get somewhere nice and dark, away from man-made light pollution.

The calculation that you need to make in order to determine your actual hourly rate is:

Actual Hourly Rate = (ZHR x sin(h))/((1/(1-k)) x 2^(6.5-m)) where

h = the height of the radiant above the horizon

k = fraction of the sky covered in cloud

m = limiting magnitude

Let’s plug the numbers in for the Geminids 2015.

ZHR = 120 (maximum)

h = 10° at 1800, 25° at 2000, 40° at 2200, 60° at 0000, 70° at 0200h

k = 0 (let’s hope!)

m = 6.5 (if you get somewhere really dark!)

So your actual hourly rate under clear dark skies is

(120 x sin(10))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 21 meteors per hour at 1800
(120 x sin(25))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 50 meteors per hour at 2000
(120 x sin(40))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 77 meteors per hour at 2200
(120 x sin(60))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 104 meteors per hour at 0000
(120 x sin(70))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 112 meteors per hour at 0000

If you’re observing in suburbia you need to divide these numbers by around 4, and in bright cities by 10! Nonetheless, even in a city if you’re out at midnight during peak activity you’ll see around 10 meteors per hour.

Remember though that these numbers are assuming perfectly clear skies under perfectly dark conditions, and are assuming a peak rate of 120 at each of these times. It probably won’t be quite this good, but the bottom line is: there’s never a better night to see meteors!

Lunar Eclipse 28 September 2015: The Blood Supermoon

September 22, 2015 Leave a comment

Stargazers in the UK are ideally placed to see a rare astronomical event next week, a Total Lunar Eclipse. While not as dramatic as a Total Solar Eclipse, a lunar eclipse is well worth watching for, as the Moon turns deep red at totality.

Lunar_eclipse_April_15_2014_California_Alfredo_Garcia_Jr1

A Blood-red Lunar Eclipse

Unlike a Total Solar Eclipse, where totality lasts only a few minutes, a total eclipse of the Moon last several hours. In the morning hours of Monday 28 September the lunar eclipse begins at 0111BST and ends at 0622BST as the Moon sets. During the very early and late hours of the lunar eclipse you will see part of the full Moon’s disk darken, but it’s only when the Moon enters totality that it will turn red. This dramatic event will happen between 0311 and 0423BST.

This month’s lunar eclipse is made even rarer by the fact that the full Moon on 28 Sep is what’s called a Supermoon. This means that the Moon is closer than normal to Earth, and will appear slightly larger and brighter in the sky. But don’t believe the hype: it will be only a few % closer and so your eye will not be able to detect the difference between this Supermoon and any other Full Moon – except this time it’ll be blood red due to the eclipse! (The Moon may actually look bigger to you if you catch it low on the horizon, but that’s due to the Moon Illusion).

The brilliant XKCD sums up the Supermoon hype nicely

The brilliant XKCD sums up the Supermoon hype nicely

A lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon, in its orbit around the Earth, passes into the Earth’s shadow, as cast by the Sun. You might imagine that this would happen once every lunar orbit, or once a month. That it does not is due to the fact that the Moon’s orbit around the Earth is tilted by around 5 degrees compared with the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. So in most orbits the Moon passes above or below the Earth’s shadow.

However, once in a while (there are at least two lunar eclipses each year) the orbital planes will align so that the Moon passes through the Earth’s shadow, sometimes just grazing it, in which case we get a partial lunar eclipse, and at other times passing right through the shadow, when we get a total lunar eclipse.

The Earth’s shadow has two distinct regions, forming two concentric cones: the inner, darker, part of the shadow is called the umbra, and objects within this part of the shadow receive no direct light from the Sun. The outer, lighter, part of the shadow is called the penumbra, and objects within this part of the shadow can receive direct light from the Sun, but part of the Sun’s disk will be obscured by the Earth, and so less light than normal falls on the object.

There are several distinct phases of a lunar eclipse, as the Moon travels through the penumbra and umbra. For this lunar eclipse the total time during which the Moon is at least partially in the Earth’s shadow is 5 hours 11 minutes, and 72 minutes of this is spent entirely within the umbra, i.e. in total eclipse.

lunareclipse28sep

These phases are given the names: P1, the time when the Moon’s disk enter the penumbra; U1, the time when the Moon’s disk enters the umbra; U2, the time when the entirety of the Moon’s disk is within the umbra; U3, the last time when the entirety of the Moon’s disk is within the umbra; U4, the last time when part of the Moon’s disk is within the umbra; and P4, the last time when part of the Moon’s disk is within the penumbra.

The UK is ideally placed to view this total lunar eclipse, although you will have to stay up very late, or get up very early. The Moon is in the sky for the entirety of the eclipse. Observers in western Europe, NW Africa, E North America, and South America will all see the full eclipse from beginning to end.

eclipse28sep2

A detailed information sheet for this eclipse (and others) is available (pdf) on the NASA Eclipse website.

Perseids Meteor Shower 2015

August 5, 2015 2 comments

This month sees the return of the most reliable meteor shower of the year; the Perseids. And with a New Moon occuring at the same time as the peak of this shower this is the perfect opportunity to see hundreds of shooting stars.

Read my previous blog post: Meteor Showers: The What, How, Where, When, Why for general advice on how best to observe meteor showers.

A shooting star – otherwise known as a meteor – is a tiny piece of space dust that burns up in our atmosphere, forming a bright, brief streak of light in the sky. Many people have never seen a shooting star, and think they’re rare events, but given clear dark skies you can expect to see a few every hour on a clear night. From cities, under light polluted skies, you can’t see most of the faint ones, and so only the rarer bright ones are visible.

However at regular times each year the Earth moves through thick clouds of space dust – left behind by comets – and we get a dramatically increased rate of meteors. We’re already within the diffuse outer reaches of the dust cloud that forms the Perseids, and on the night of 12/13 August we’ll be in the densest part of that cloud, and will see the rate increase by a factor of 20!

You can begin watching for Perseid meteors now, and the shower will last until late-August, but the peak of the shower occurs overnight on 12/13 August 2015, which means that the nights on either side of this will be best for meteorwatching.

Location of the Perseids Radiant at 0001 on 13 August

Location of the Perseids Radiant at 0001 on 13 August

The best time of night to watch the meteor shower is from around 2200 onwards on 12 August 2014, once the radiant, the point from where the meteors appear to originate, rises above the horizon. The later you observe the higher the radiant will be, and the more meteors you’ll see.

The number of meteors that you will observe every hour depends on a number of factors:
•the density of the dust cloud that the Earth is moving through, that is causing the shower in the first place;
•the height above the horizon of the radiant of the shower, the point from which the meteors appear to radiate;
•the fraction of your sky that is obscured by cloud;
•the darkness of your sky, measured using naked-eye limiting magnitude, a measure of the faintest object you can see.

The Perseid meteor shower has a zenith hourly rate (ZHR) of around 100. This is the number of meteors that you can expect to see if the radiant is directly overhead (the point in the sky called the zenith), and you are observing under a cloudless sky with no trace of light pollution.

However conditions are rarely that perfect. In the UK, for example, the radiant of the shower will not be at the zenith; it will be around 30° above the horizon at 2200, 40° high at midnight, and 50° high at 0200.

Assuming a clear night, the other factor is the limiting magnitude of the sky, a measure of the faintest object you can see. Man-made light pollution will be an issue for most people. From suburbia the limiting magnitude of the sky is ~4.5 (around 500 stars visible), so you will only be able to see meteors that are at least this bright; the fainter ones wouldn’t be visible through the orange glow. In a big city centre your limiting magnitude might be ~3 (only around 50 stars visible); in a very dark site like Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park the limiting magnitude is ~6.5 (many thousands of stars visible), limited only by the sensitivity of your eye. So in most cases it’s best to try and get somewhere nice and dark, away from man-made light pollution.

The calculation that you need to make in order to determine your actual hourly rate is:

Actual Hourly Rate = (ZHR x sin(h))/((1/(1-k)) x 2^(6.5-m)) where

h = the height of the radiant above the horizon

k = fraction of the sky covered in cloud

m = limiting magnitude

Let’s plug the numbers in for the Persieds 2015.

ZHR = 100 at the peak, say.

h = 30° at 2200, 40° at 0000, 50° at 0200, 65° at 0400

k = 0 (let’s hope!)

m = 6.5 (if you’re observing under skies free from light pollution)

So your actual hourly rate under clear dark skies is

(100 x sin(30))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 50 meteors per hour at 2200
(100 x sin(40))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 64 meteors per hour at 0000
(100 x sin(50))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 77 meteors per hour at 0200
(100 x sin(65))/((1/(1-0) x 2^(6.5-6.5) = 90 meteors per hour at 0400

Remember though that these numbers apply only to the peak of the Perseid occuring at these times. If the peak happens at 0400 on 13 August (and we’re not sure exactly when it’ll occur) then you might see 90 meteors per hour, but “only” 20-25 per hour if the peak occurs at 2200 on 12 August.

Remember that these rates are for perfectly dark skies. If you live in surbribia then divide these numbers by 4 or 5; if you live in a bright city divide these numbers by 10. Take home message: get somewhere dark!

It is worthwhile having a look on the days leading up to the peak, when the numbers of meteors will be gradually increasing towards this rate.

Blue Moon Friday 31 July 2015

July 27, 2015 2 comments

This Friday 31 July 2015 there is an event which happens only “once in a blue moon”. Literally. This month there is a Blue Moon.

The occurrence of a Blue Moon doesn’t mean that the Moon will in fact turn blue. Instead a Blue Moon refers to a second Full Moon occurring within a fixed amount of time.

A full moon

A Full Moon, definitely not Blue

There are two widely accepted definitions of a Blue Moon: either it is an additional Full Moon within a season, or an additional Full Moon within a calendar month.

Moon Phases

Normally there are twelve Full Moons in a year, with one occurring every month. In fact the word “month” is derived from “Moon”. However the phases of the Moon don’t cooperate and divide the year perfectly into twelve with no left overs.

The Moon orbits the Earth every 27.32166 days, known as a sidereal month. As it does so we see different fractions of the lit half of the Moon, creating different phases. However during these 27.32166 days the Earth also orbits the Sun, and so the rate at which the phases change and repeat themselves is slowed down. Looking at the Moon from down here on Earth we see the pattern of phases repeating every 29.53059 days, known as a synodic month.

This is roughly one calendar month, but not exactly. It’s because of this “not exactly” that we don’t get a round number of Full Moons occurring every year, and don’t get exactly one occurring every calendar month.

In fact there are 12.37 Full Moons every year, and for this reason, every so often, we get 13 Full Moons in a year, which means an extra one in a season or in a calendar month.

The Maine Farmers’ Almanac Blue Moon (Type 1)

The original definition of the Blue Moon came from the Maine Farmers’ Almanac which defined a Blue Moon as the third Full Moon within a quarter-year season that has four Full Moons. Confused? You’re not alone. Normally a quarter-year season will have three Full Moons in it, as normally there are 12 Full Moons in a year. But due to that extra Full Moon that we sometimes get, every so often there are 13 Full Moons in a year. This extra Full Moon will occur in one specific season, and in that season the third of the four Full Moons is known as the Blue Moon.

Additional confusion arises due to the fact that the Maine Farmers’ Almanac uses a different definition of a season from the one astronomers use. Astronomers define the start and end points of the four seasons by the position of the Sun in the sky, or put another way the position of the Earth in its orbit. Because the Earth moves at different speeds at different points in its orbit the astronomical seasons are different lengths. Agricultural seasons in the Maine Farmers’ Almanac were all the same length.

This leads to the situation where a Blue Moon (as defined by the Maine Farmers’ Almanac) might occur in an agricultural season but not within an astronomical season. In order to avoid this additional confusion, seasonal Blue Moons are calculated with respect to the astronomical seasons these days.

For decades this definition of a Blue Moon held and was the only one. However now we have an alternative definition, thanks to a mistake in a prominent astronomy magazine.

The Sky and Telescope Blue Moon (Type 2)

In 1946 the astronomy magazine Sky and Telescope published an article by James Hugh Pruett in which he mistakenly interpreted the Maine Farmers’ Almanac. He correctly stated that due to the 12.37 Full Moons per year, we get an extra (thirteenth) Full Moon in seven years out of every 19. He then went on to state that the extra Full Moon that occurs in these seven years must occur in a specific month (correct) and that the second Full Moon in a calendar month is known as the Blue Moon (incorrect, according to the original definition).

Despite the fact that this definition of a Blue Moon was a mistake at the time, it was widely adopted, probably in large part due to its relative simplicity, and is the one that most people use these days.

This Month’s Blue Moon

This Friday’s Blue Moon is an example of a Type 2 Blue Moon, the second Full Moon within a calendar month (July 2015). The first Full Moon this month occurred on 2 July, leaving ample time for the second Full Moon to sneak in at the end of the month, on Friday 31 July 2015.

A Type 2 Blue Moon occurs on average once every 2.7 years. Most type 2 Blue Moons occur within months of 31 days, but they can occur in 30-day months. Because February is only 28 or 29 days long (shorter than the 29.53059 days of the synodic month) February can never have a Blue Moon (jn fact sometimes February has no Full Moons in it at all! The last time this happened was February 1999; the next time it will happen is February 2018).

Within any given century you can expect 37 Blue Moons, around 33 of which will occur in a 31-day month, and around seven of which will occur in a 30-day month.

Future Blue Moons

After this week’s Blue Moon the next one won’t occur until 2018, but then we get two that year! The first occurs on 31 January 2018 (Full Moons on 2 and 31 January 2018) and the second on 31 March 2018 (Full Moons on 2 and 31 March 2018).

After that we have to wait until 31 October 2020.

The next Blue Moon to occur in a 30-day month happens on 30 September 2031.

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